Inflation has weakened consumer demand for RAM and smoothed out seasonal spikes, TrendForce analysts found out. In Q3 2022, DRAM chip shipments fell again, forcing suppliers to stock up. Market participants began to negotiate on “price consolidation in the III and IV quarters”, as well as on “coordination of volumes and pricing” – in the IV quarter, DRAM can immediately fall in price by 13-18%.
Image Source: skhynix.com
In the PC segment of the DRAM market, due to weak demand for notebooks, manufacturers will have to make efforts to reduce memory inventories. At the same time, the production of chips continues to grow, and in the fourth quarter we should expect a drop in prices by 13-20%. It is noted that DDR5 will fall in price more than DDR4 already this quarter. The penetration of more expensive DDR5 in the PC market will increase by 13-15%, and the average price will fall by 10-15%.
In the server segment, DRAM purchases have declined due to a delay in the release of the new Intel platform, and server shipments may also decrease in Q4. Server memory inventory will remain at its highest for 9-12 weeks. Memory makers are trying to switch from OEMs and Chinese cloud providers that have slashed purchases to consumers in the US cloud, and product prices could fall by the end of the year. The quarterly decline in prices for server memory may be at the level of the PC segment – from 13 to 18%.
Image source: trendforce.com
Similar processes are expected in the mobile segment. Smartphone makers continue to revise their production plans downwards, making it harder to cut mobile DRAM inventories. But given the demand for advanced solutions, the mobile market is increasing its contribution to increasing the production of memory chips. As a result, mobile DRAM prices will fall by the same 13-18% in Q4 and continue to decline further.
Prices for Graphics DRAM will, of course, depend on the prices of video cards, and the latter are expected to decline. Demand for GDDR6 8 and 16 GB decreased – it was not saved by a price drop in the III quarter. Both chip suppliers, Samsung and SK hynix, will actively compete for orders with aggressive pricing policies. The overall price reduction could be 10-15%.
The consumer DRAM market has rebounded with reduced chip shortages and infrastructure upgrades in Europe and the US, but offsetting the decline in demand for other end products has proven difficult. Some manufacturers tried to repurpose old lines for other products, but without much success – the demand for image sensors also decreased. The drop in prices for DRAM in the consumer segment for the fourth quarter will be 10-15%.
